Note: This is an early draft I wanted to put online, so I can talk with colleagues about it. I will refine it in the next weeks.

Summary: Based on the events data from gdelt a graph can be plotted which displays the violence in Ethiopia. Here I try to improve a simple ARIMA model by adding external and seasonal dimensions to the data.

You can find a more detailed description of the source data on my other posts tagged gdelt and on the gdelt website.

This method can be applied to any other country.

DoTos:

• normalize data before modeling
• more verbose description of each step
• extensive data interpretation

Next Steps: Build and compare the following models:

• LSTM Model (15 % done, 3/3)

Technology used:

• standard Laptop with Ubuntu
• Python 3x / Jupyter / libaries as imported / anacona

Jupyter Notebook:

(download data used here as csv)