Note: This is an early draft I wanted to put online, so I can talk with colleagues about it. I will refine it in the next weeks.
Summary: Based on the events data from gdelt a graph can be plotted which displays the violence in Ethiopia. Here I apply a simple ARIMA model to the data, hoping to predict one or two days. You can find a more detailed description of the source data on my other posts tagged gdelt and on the gdelt website.
This method can be applied to any other country.
- normalize data before modeling
- more verbose description
- data interpretation
Next Steps: Build and compare the following models:
- Sarimax Model (70 % done, 2/3)
- LSTM Model (5 % done, 3/3)
- standard Laptop with Ubuntu
- Python 3x / Jupyter / libaries as imported / anacona